Sunday, 24 May 2020

The Air Transport Industry is on Life Support

The Air Transport Industry is on Life Support !
This will have a major impact on our lifestyle ...
Indian Aviation is on Pink Slip
No one can Save Indian Aviation, not even the Government. Any amount by the Government or investors or in bank loans will be insufficient for these companies to survive. It can be just Air India. Unfortunately, We have such a Worst Govt  ever without any vision for the Aviation Industry.  Promoters of Go Air India Ltd wrote a letter to their employees and said that they are waiting to hear from the Government on bailout Packages. They can wait, they will not hear anything.
Even though oil is available cheaper, the large value center of employee remuneration remains high and has low demand.
Indians look at the landscape in Aviation. Air India, being a Government is paid to them even if it is late. Vistara cut salary, but it was considered reasonable. The employees have a certain level of trust with the Indian promoters, the Indian Tata group. Go Air's condition is quite poor and Spice Jet is also not far behind.
Everyday religiously tweets and tons of freight are being Tweeted by the Civil Aviation Minister and the cargo is not out of the transport, even if it is a trick. SpiceJet is getting a lion's share in it and its proximity to electricity is no
secret. But here is a situation where one cannot save anyone.
SpiceJet is not paying its Pilots, yet it threatens its Pilots and has disbanded some SJ Pilo WhatsApp groups made by Pilots. Pilots, Cabin Crews, AMEs all know what the situation is there. They know that if they lose jobs they are not going to get any.
So the human mind is conditioned in such a way that they like  to hold on to what they have. So a person who was taking 100  rupees for a job, he is suddenly being paid 50 rupees and still She / He will work, because he knows that he does not have 50 rupees. Other options available. In this environment, these companies know this clearly and will make the most possible use of it.
But the fact is, in this market, it is not going to survive you, it just delays your death.
Jet Airways is the biggest example of this type of human behavior that allows a company to live its life for six months. The Pilot and AME never laid their feet for 'fear', Jet extended his life by 6 months, but eventually died. The loss was only to the Pilot and AME. Jet's case was not of CoVid19, it was a case of mismanagement. Jet Airways I Ltd could have  been saved, all Pilots and AME put their foot down and Goyal  understood the changed scenario. The jet collapsed, but after  extending its death from 6 to 8 months.
This fear will outweigh the time of the jet, as everyone in Aviation knows not only the bloodbred but also the general economy. Most of these employees will have to invest some part of their savings in securities, mutual funds, apartments. There  is no way that they will see the money coming from any of their  investments and they will still have their EMI.
This human behavior will allow some Airlines to advance their lives for some time, but they will perish in market forces and  the prime candidates for this to happen are GoAir and SpiceJet.
Air Asia India will probably have some cooperation with Vistara  otherwise their existence will also become doubtful as the Malaysian Government itself is thinking of merging AirAsia Airlines with the Malaysian Airline.
Pay cuts in Indigo, it is not a change or a heart, it is a  change in business strategy IndiGo first said that it would cut the salary and later they reversed the decision and paid their employees. The lower the competition, the stronger the chances of survival.  
There were rumors that IndiGo is going to give bonuses to Pilots from other Airlines to join them as they need Pilots due to the pending delivery.
No saint management will ever employ anyone. Is this a strategy to take out key employees who are required to hold permits to Air Operators? No Airline can operate without a sufficient number of Test Pilots / DE / TRI etc. 
Indigo would be foolish to do so openly that it would turn  hostility into enmity.
Indigo had a change of heart as it is the employees who will  decide its future.
Now with this one step, IndiGo is positioning itself as the  best employee in the Airline business.
Today the size of IndiGo is its own EnemyNow that the employees have been paid, they will stake their
lives to survive them, but for Indigo, suddenly their size is their enemy. With 250 Aircraft, it is very heavy. Any Airline
should risk working with more than 50 Aircraft, but IndiGo is  going to start with 65, but it still means that more than 100
Aircraft are grounded and at least per Aircraft crew. 2 sets are going to be a cost center. 2 sets of crew and if you have
support staff, it means taking out at least 5000 pink slips  (Pilots, AME, Cabin Crew, Engineers) of 'required staff' only
for its 'survival' Will happen. The number of deductions will  be more than 5000.
IndiGo has only 400 Aircraft from Airbus. Indigo hopes that it will survive the virus and rule the Indian skies almost like a monopoly. But overall the economy is so badly hurt that people now have money left and not to spend. Nobody is in any hurry to fly fast. With a vaccine or a drug to treat, the economy will  take at least 5 years and is a very long time. What do you do
on order to 400 Aircraft. Litigation, claims and indemnities  themselves can pull it down badly, even if it survives the
virus. From this point of view, SpiceJet is better. Their pending orders of about 100 Airplanes are Boeing 737 Max which is unlikely to get FAA certification. So at least SpiceJet does not have to worry about a lawsuit taking money out of their pocket, they only have to worry about withdrawing money from Boeing !!!
Pink slips are the biggest risk potential claims and IndiGo Pink Slip is a certainty, most of those people are unlikely to  get a second job and this poses a 'potential risk' to the Survival of these companies as every terminated employee has a  potential 'claim'. If these people get together, then these  claims together can suffice and if these people fight it  strategically, it could land a company under bankruptcy.
SpiceJet and GoAir will also serve several tons pink slip. But  now there is a problem for Indigo. No employee will be able to personally fight for these potential claims. But this time, it  is a little different, people have nothing to lose and if there is even a slight chance of getting some money, they can come together and fight and there is no dearth of lawyers willing to  take small fees. Manage litigation. It is here that Indigo is at greater risk than any other. Even when lawyers take up these  cases, they do so with the hope of seeing the money in some  time, but with Go Air and SpiceJet on the verge of bankruptcy,  the lawyers may be behind them. Don't be anxious to leave  because they will land in the bankruptcy court and stay there for years. But, for Indigo, it is sitting on a mountain of cash  and is attractive to an advocate for it. If he gets an order  from the court, then payment is certain.
If 5,000 people and even if 1000 come together in the fire of Indigo, Indigo will pay heavily because every profit made by
this group will also encourage 4000 potential claims and everyone will go after this company. It is here that Indigo
decides to show his big heart so that when he fires his employees, they will say "this is a difficult time, but as the
environment improves, we will hire you". It is the art of asking for 'time'. It is not the heart, it is a strategy.
Companies bet on weak judicial system Airline companies bank on the fact that employees will not take  them to court, because personally none of them can fight their  battles. 
The best available strategy for Airline companies Trying to keep Pilots 'on' will top that list. One fifth of the Pilot salary will also be ready to take home  and are still employed compared to sitting at home with   the  possibility of any other employment. In this market, each company can easily maintain 5 Pilots for the cost of one and it would be much more feasible to avoid the risk of potential
group claims. 
It's not just the Covid19, it's the AviaEconomy  On the pulse of society are the hands of doctors on the pulse of the patient, such as are in our hands. Indian Aviation was looking at a possible consolidation anyway, but the virus now  looks powerful enough to be completely wiped out. Right now the problem is not the CovidVirus, it is the economy. The economy in general, is so badly affected that people have no money to spend, they only have money to survive. Mutual funds and equities are good as paper, and it is the owners of these papers who constitute the bulk of the customers.
Irresponsible behavior should pay its costs We have received a lot of e-mails from the Pilots and we have refused any free service. We still know how many Pilots jumped  the notice period The most pressing question was whether the law without leave  (LWP) was legal or the pay cut was legal. 
Both answer that it is absolutely illegal.
The company may have the right to terminate but has no authority to reduce Salaries or impose LWP. 

A very SAD Era of 100 years old AVIATION  Industry 
Virgin fires more than 3,000 people including 600 Pilots.
- Virgin Australia files for Bankruptcy.
- Air Mauritius goes into Administration.
- South African Airways Bankrupt.
- FinnAir returns 12 planes and lays off 2,400 people.
- YOU grounds 22 planes and fires 4,100 people.
- RyanAir grounds 113 planes and gets rid of 900 pilots for the moment, 450 more in the coming months.
- Norwegian completely stops its long-haul activity!!!  The 787s are returned to the lessors.
- SAS returns 14 planes and fires 520 pilots... The Scandinavian states are studying a plan to liquidate Norwegian and SAS to rebuild a new company from their ashes.
- Ethiad cancels 18 orders for A350, grounds 10 A380 and 10 Boeing 787. Lays off 720 staff.
- Emirates grounds 38 A380s and cancels all orders for the Boeing 777x (150 Aircraft, the largest order for this type). They "invite" all employees over 56 to retire 
- WizzAir returns 32 A320s and lays off 1,200 people, including 200 pilots, another wave of 430 layoffs planned in the coming months.  Remaining employees will see their wages reduced by 30%.
- IAG (British Airways’ parent company) abandons the takeover of Air Europa (and will pay €40 million compensation for that).
- IAG (Iberia) grounds 56 planes.
- IAG (British Airways) grounds 34 planes.  Everyone over 58 to retire.
- LuxAir reduces its fleet by 50% (and associated redundancies)
- CSA abolishes its long-haul sector and keeps only 5 medium-haul Aircraft.
- Eurowings goes into Bankruptcy
- Brussels Airline reduces its fleet by 50% (and associated redundancies).
- Lufthansa plans to ground 72 Aircraft (in 2 instalments).
- Hop is studying the possibility of reducing fleet and staff by 50%.
Additional info:
Currently, 60 new Aircraft stored at Airbus with no buyers in sight (order cancellations) including 18 A350s.
They forecast a minimum of 8,000 grounded planes by September.  With an average of 5.8 crews per plane (medium and long haul combined), that would make more than 90,000 unemployed pilots worldwide



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