Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that yesterday saw Europe slide back into recession with little light at the end of the tunnel ahead
The release of EZ flash GDP estimates yesterday confirmed that the block has technically fallen back into recession, contracting for a second consecutive quarter by 0.1%. He notes that the country break down revealed some surprises in that the open and integrated economies of German, Belgium and the Netherlands proved weaker than expectation whilst growth in the domestically-driven economies such as France, Italy, Spain and Portugal proved stronger.
However, he notes that it appears unlikely that this resilience will last, with incoming leading indicators signaling to a marked deterioration in economic activity in Q4. He continues to highlight that fuirther evidence was also provided yesterday that the UK economy has lost significant momentum in Q4 with Retail Sales contracting by -0.8% MoM in October. Meanwhile, in the US today, President Obama and congressional leaders will begin budget talks to ease the fiscal cliff.
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