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Showing posts with label current recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label current recession. Show all posts

Tuesday 25 September 2012

S & P says new Global Recession hitting euro zone





NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's Rating Services on Tuesday pared down its economic forecast for the euro zone in 2012 and 2013 in response to indicators that "paint a bleak picture" for the region. "The data are confirming our view that the region is entering a new period of recession, after three quarters of negative or flat growth since the final quarter of 2010," according to Jean-Michel Six, the rating agency's chief economist for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. "But prospects continue to vary from country to country." S&P said it now expects a drop of 0.8% in euro-zone GDP in 2012 and flat growth in 2013, compared to its July projection of a 0.7% GDP dip in 2012 and 0.3% growth in 2013.


Jakarta Globe RSS: Business







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      The Great Recession In Comparative Context
      Slate Magazine (blog)
      This is an important comparative perspective. Similarly, when you're assessing the performance of the Bush and Obama administrations and the Ben Bernanke Fed it's important to not just compare them to some theoretical ideal but to policymakers in the...
      See all stories on this topic »

      Slate Magazine (blog)
      S&P says new recession hitting euro zone
      MarketWatch
      NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's Rating Services on Tuesday pared down its economic forecast for the euro zone in 2012 and 2013 in response to indicators that "paint a bleak picture" for the region. "The data are confirming our view that the ...
      See all stories on this topic »
      Recession, drought help Interstate 69 project as highway makes its slow creep ...
      Greenfield Daily Reporter
      WASHINGTON, Ind. — Parallel concrete strips stretched to the horizon in front and behind, recently laid by a "paving train," the huge pieces of linked equipment that continuously pour, settle and smooth a two-lane strip of roadway at a time. Workers ...
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      Lafayette banks prosper despite recession
      The Daily Advertiser
      insured banks based in Lafayette -- IberiaBank, MidSouth Bank and Home Bank -- all more than doubled their assets from December 2007, the beginning of the recession, to June 2012, according to data from FDIC. "We're doing extremely well. We are big on ...
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      Study: Recession punishes West Virginia workers
      World Socialist Web Site
      The recession wiped out 21,300 jobs in West Virginia, of which 18,000 of which have been recouped during the so-called economic “recovery” since 2010. However, due to population growth over this period some 27,000 new jobs would still need to be ...
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      During recession, some Aspen-area nonprofit leaders saw pay cuts
      Aspen Times
      The following chart reflects both the pay increases and decreases CEOs and executive directors of Aspen-Snowmass nonprofits have received, based on the most recent tax returns available for the organizations. The seven nonprofit directors are included ...
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      Germany to Avoid Recession in 2nd Half, Grow in 2013, Industry Chief Says
      NASDAQ
      BERLIN--Germany's economy will skirt recession in the second half of 2012 and continue growing next year, amid higher exports to the U.S. and improvements in the euro zone, the head of German industry lobbying group BDI forecast Tuesday.
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Monday 24 September 2012

Finnair to cut 100 flight crew jobs



Finnair plans to let go about 100 cabin attendants. The national carrier says it will begin using subcontracted crew on its flights to Spain.

The airline plans to use locally-based crew on regular routes to Barcelona, Madrid and leisure flights to the Canary Islands. Some crew for its New York route and Asian charter flights will also be hired locally.

According to the airline, reductions would be implemented through temporary layoffs during 2013.

"Possible redundancies would be implemented earliest in 2014," after the protection from redundancies in the current collective labour agreement with cabin attendants ends, it said in a statement.

"Using local cabin crew on our Spanish routes would be a natural way to decrease costs," Anssi Komulainen, Customer Service Senior Vice President said.

"On these long routes, the crew has to stay overnight at the destination, which adds to hotel and daily allowance costs, among others. By having the cabin crew based in Spain on these routes, we could generate savings."

The airline said that the decision to lay off the cabin attendants is part of a bigger corporate plan to slash costs at the company.

Finnair announced in August last year that it targets decreases in its annual costs of 140 million euros by 2014.

The flag carrier employs approximately 1700 cabin attendants in Finland, and approximately 300 in China, Japan, Thailand, India, South Korea and Singapore.


Germany is heading for recession, economists warned on Monday as the eurozone crisis pushed down business confidence in the country



Germany is heading for recession, economists warned on Monday as the eurozone crisis pushed down business confidence in the country, Europe's top economy, to the lowest level since February 2010.
The Ifo institute said its closely watched survey of the business climate in Germany dropped unexpectedly in September for the fifth month running to 101.4 points from 102.3 points in August.
Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected an unchanged reading, hoping businesses would be more bullish after the European Central Bank announced unprecedented action earlier this month to stem the eurozone crisis.
"The companies surveyed are again less satisfied with their current business situation. They also expressed greater pessimism about the future," said Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn.
"The headwinds on the German economy continue to prevail," he added.
The disappointing data were "a reminder that even the eurozone's strongest economies are suffering from a serious economic downturn," judged Jennifer McKeown, an analyst at Capital Economics.
"In all ... it seems like only a matter of time before the economy starts to contract. This will make support for the peripheral economies even more difficult to muster," she added.
ING bank economist Carsten Brzeski said the figures "confirm our view that the German economy could see a contraction in the third quarter."
However, he saw only a short-term dip.
"In the short run, a stronger euro and somewhat higher interest rates should dampen German growth but in the long run the positive impact from a stabilised eurozone should prevail," said the analyst.
Ifo calculates its headline index on the basis of companies' assessments of their current business situation and the outlook for the next six months.
The sub-index measuring current business dropped to 110.3 in September from 111.1 points in August, and the outlook sub-index also fell to 93.2 points from 94.2 points in August.
The disappointing data weighed heavily on the markets, with all major European stock exchanges in the red and the euro plunging on the foreign exchange market.
Unlike many of its neighbours, Germany has shown strong resistance to the debt crisis that has swept through the 17-country bloc, relying on its powerful export motor to keep the economy humming.
It notched up modest growth of 0.3 percent in the second quarter while the eurozone as a whole contracted by 0.2 percent.
But even the German powerhouse has been unable to resist forever and a raft of economic data recently has suggested the economy is beginning to falter.
The economy ministry said in its latest report earlier this month that, while they expected a "fairly stable development" in the second half of the year, there was "no reason to sound the all-clear", noting "downside risks."
New car registrations, a key indicator of demand in Germany, tumbled sharply in August, while the most recent retail sales figures also declined. Consumer confidence has stagnated as well.
As the economy hits headwinds from the crisis, unemployment is beginning to rise -- admittedly from its lowest level since Germany was reunited more than two decades ago.
Latest data showed the total number of people out of work rose by 29,100 in August from July to stand at 2.91 million.
Economists fear that consumption and domestic demand could begin to run out of steam as several companies -- including carmaker Opel -- introduce short-time working schemes to cut costs.







 


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      US stocks lower after bad economic data in Europe
      Los Angeles Times
      Germany's economy grew 0.3 percent in the second quarter from the previous quarter, but a number of economists now believe the country will fall into a recession in the second half of the year. In the U.S., traders will be looking for more good news ...
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      WHY IT MATTERS: After wars and recession, a sea of red ink confronts nation ...
      Washington Post
      President Barack Obama has proposed bringing deficits down by slowing spending gradually, to avoid suddenly tipping the economy back into recession. To help, he would raise taxes on households earning over $250,000 annually and impose a surcharge ...
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      IFO points to German recession – Capital Economics
      NASDAQ
      FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Jennifer McKeown, Senior European Economist for Capital Economics notes that September's fall in the German IFO business survey is a reminder that even the EZ's strongest economies are suffering from a serious economic ...
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      Recession worsens brownfields backlog in Wisconsin
      Appleton Post Crescent
      A strange red icicle discovered in 1985 on a bluff over Lake Michigan prompted a decades-long cleanup, still in progress, at the former Carrollville works in Oak Creek. The color came from a defunct dye factory. / Wisconsin Department of Natural ...
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      The Week Ahead on Wall Street: Fed's latest stimulus plan aims to get you back ...
      OregonLive.com
      On Tuesday, FedEx, considered a bellwether because its shipping operations span the globe, said that trading volumes had slowed to recession levels. On Thursday, railroad giant Norfolk Southern dropped 9 percent after reporting a steep fall in shipments.
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      OregonLive.com
      ะœacedonia to take measures against recession
      Southeast European Times
      Macedonia's government announced efforts to stimulate economic growth after it became the last Balkan country to enter a recession, following a 1.4 percent decrease in GDP in the first quarter of this year and 0.9 percent in the second. Prime Minister ...
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      Recession hammered high-street retailers, says study
      Belfast Telegraph
      The British Retail Consortium research, timed to mark the fourth anniversary of the banking failure which nearly brought down the world's financial system, showed sales growing at less than half the rate they were before the recession struck in 2008 ...
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      Ifo signals German recession
      Forexrazor
      Ifo signals German recession. The German ifo expectations index fell to 93.2 in ... @ 11:04 AM, Monday September 24 2012. The German ifo expectations index fell to 93.2 in September, from 94.2 in August – well below... For more information, read our ...
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      Germany heading for recession as confidence sinks: analysts
      AFP
      BERLIN — Germany is heading for recession, economists warned on Monday as the eurozone crisis pushed down business confidence in the country, Europe's top economy, to the lowest level since February 2010. The Ifo institute said its closely watched ...
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      Germany heading for recession
      Bangkok Post
      Germany is heading for recession, economists warned as the eurozone crisis pushed down business confidence in the country, Europe's top economy, to the lowest level since February 2010. European Union President Herman Van Rompuy called for a fresh ...
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Thursday 20 September 2012

Recession and jobs: Is energy the driver?



Economic and job growth are closely tied to energy consumption. While jobs can grow faster than energy use when efficiency kicks in, the cost may be lower wages.

The number of jobs available to job-seekers has been a problem for quite a long tine now—since 2000 in the United States, and longer than that in Europe. If we look at the percentage of the US population who are employed, it is now back to 1984 or 1985 levels

I have run into a number of clues about what is happening. In this post, I’d like to discuss what I am seeing. Part of the problem is that high oil costs squeeze the economy, reducing employment. Part of the problem is growing trade with Asia. It is even possible that the Kyoto protocol (which the US did not sign) has something to do with what we are seeing. Let me start by explaining a fairly strange relationship.

A Strange Relationship – A Close Tie Between the Amount of Energy Consumed and the Number of People Employed

Since 1982, the number of people employed in the United States has tended to move in a similar pattern to the amount of energy consumed. When one increases (or decreases), the other tends to increase (or decrease). In numerical terms, R2  = .98. (Click on Figure 2 above.)

RELATED: Top 5 nations that use renewable energy

I have written recently about the close long-term relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. We know that economic growth is tied to job creation, so it stands to reason that energy consumption would be tied to job growth1 . But I will have to admit that I was surprised by the closeness of the relationship for the period shown.

This close relationship is concerning, because if it holds in the future, it suggests that it will be very difficult to reduce energy consumption without a lot of unemployment. It also would seem to suggest that a shortage of energy supplies (as reflected by high prices) can lead to unemployment.

Why Rising Energy Cost (Particularly Oil) Leads to Lower Employment and Less Energy Consumption

Suppose oil prices rise2 . The critical issue is that consumers’ incomes do not rise at the same time. Consumers’ budgets get squeezed, and they cut back on discretionary spending. For example, they may go out to restaurants less, make fewer long-distance vacation trips, put off buying a new car, or contribute less to their favorite charities. Workers in discretionary sectors of the economy tend to get laid off, as a result. We have come to know this as part of recession.

(The impact of an oil price rise will be worse if other fuel prices, such as natural gas, rise as well. It will be mitigated, if natural gas prices are low, as they are in 2012 in the United States. Europe has much higher natural gas prices than the United States. This is big part of the reason why recessionary impacts are now worse in Europe than the United States.)

In the case of high oil prices and lay-offs, less energy of all types–not just oil–is used. Laid-off workers may move in with relatives, and thus reduce their living expenses. Each laid-off worker would have used oil to get to their job, and this will no longer be required. The jobs experiencing layoffs themselves may have required fuel use of various types, such as heat for buildings, fuel for airplanes, or electricity used in making new cars, and this is reduced as well.

There is also likely to be a link to housing prices. Moving up to a more expensive home is a discretionary expenditure. If people’s incomes are squeezed by high oil prices, and some are being laid off, there will be less demand for homes as well. This lower demand can be expected to reduce housing prices, especially in areas where commuting distances are longest (and thus, oil use for commuting greatest). There are also likely to be layoffs in the construction industry, as there is less demand for new homes and new buildings of all sorts.

As I have mentioned previously, James Hamilton (2011) has shown that 10 out of 11 recessions in the United States since World War II were associated with oil price spikes.

High Energy Costs in One Area Tend to Lead to Substitution to Places Where Energy Costs Are Lower

If there is a possibility of international trade, manufacturing and some types of services will tend to move to areas where costs are lowest. Part of these costs are energy costs. A manufacturer with cheap electricity costs will have an advantage over one with higher electricity costs. As energy costs rise (as they have in recent years), they get to be more important in determining where manufacturing will be done.

Besides direct energy costs, wages are another part of the difference in costs from one part of the world to another. Wages tend to be lower in the warmer areas of the world. In part, this is because energy from the sun provides much of the needed energy for heating homes, so there is less need for supplemental energy. This means that wages do not need to be as high for a comparable standard of living.




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Eurozone in Deepening Recession, Survey Finds
ABC News
Europe appears headed for a deepening economic recession despite a recent easing in market concerns over the three-year debt crisis, a closely-watched survey found Thursday. Financial data company Markit said its purchasing managers' index — a ...
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Irish Economy Skirts Recession
Wall Street Journal
DUBLIN—The Irish economy avoided slipping into recession by the narrowest possible margin in the second quarter, but shrinking domestic demand canceled out a rise in exports, raising new questions about whether the country can meet its budget targets ...
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Avoiding a Double-Dip Recession Doesn't Require Extending the Bush Tax Cuts
Huffington Post
Politicians, pundits, and the press corps are turning their attention to the so-called "fiscal cliff," the host of expiring tax provisions and scheduled spending cuts that will collectively push the U.S. economy into a double-dip recession in the first ...
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Low-income Southland households had biggest recession losses
Los Angeles Times
People of all income levels across Southern California suffered losses during and after the GreatRecession, but the lowest fifth of households took the biggest hit, new census data show. Los Angeles County households whose earnings put them in the ...
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Economy has bottomed out, census data suggests
NBCNews.com (blog)
"We may be seeing the beginning of the American family's recovery from the Great Recession," said Andrew Cherlin, a professor of sociology and public policy at Johns Hopkins University. He pointed in particular to the upswing in mobility and to young ...
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Recession and jobs: Is energy the driver?
Christian Science Monitor
This is big part of the reason why recessionary impacts are now worse in Europe than the United States.) In the case of high oil prices and lay-offs, less energy of all types–not just oil–is used. Laid-off workers may move in with relatives, and thus ...
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Christian Science Monitor
Recession means lower incomes, more poverty for Coloradans, Census data show
Colorado Springs Gazette
Coloradans have lower real incomes, a higher percent are living in poverty and fewer own their own homes than the year before the recession began in 2007, according to an I-News analysis of Census figures released Wednesday. The analysis also found ...
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Euro To Threaten 1.2650 Amid Deepening Recession, Greek Restructuring
Inside Futures
The Euro sold off on Thursday as the economic docket showed a deepening recession in Europe, and the single currency may is likely to face additional headwinds over the near-term as the debt crisis continues to drag on the real economy. Talking Points ...
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Hamleys Sale Spotlights Recession-Proof Sector
The Herald | HeraldOnline.com
Although the rise of Toys R Us and video games have posed serious threats to traditional toy shops, the sector is widely seen as comparatively recession-proof. The 2008 financial crash sparked a resurgence in demand for traditional toys, which parents ...
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Region's minorities hit hardest by recession
Omaha World-Herald
The recession appears to have hit Omaha's minority workers harder than whites, and their job losses are getting worse in this fragile and slow recovery, according to new census data released today. One in five black Omahans was unemployed last year, ...
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