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Friday, 9 May 2025

The Escalation Ladder of War Where Do India and Pakistan Stand Today

 



The Escalation Ladder of War: Where Do India and Pakistan Stand Today?


The Indo-Pak rivalry, deeply rooted in history, geopolitics, and ideology, remains one of the most volatile nuclear flashpoints in the world. From four full-fledged wars to numerous skirmishes and cross-Border operations, the conflict has climbed various rungs on the escalation Ladder. Today, as regional dynamics evolve and both nations modernize their military capabilities, it's critical to assess: Where are India and Pakistan now on the escalation Ladder of war?


Understanding the Escalation Ladder

The "escalation Ladder" is a concept in military strategy that outlines levels of conflict, from peace to all-out nuclear war. The key rungs include:

  1. Stable Peace

  2. Political Tension/Diplomatic Pressure

  3. Conventional Skirmishes/Border Clashes

  4. Limited Conventional War

  5. Full-scale Conventional War

  6. Threat of Nuclear Use

  7. Tactical Nuclear Strikes

  8. Strategic Nuclear Exchange


Historical Context: Indo-Pak Clashes Through the Escalation Ladder

  • 1947-48, 1965, and 1971 Wars: India and Pakistan have already experienced the fourth and fifth rungs, involving large-scale troop movements and aerial battles.

  • 1999 Kargil War: A significant limited war under the nuclear shadow, occurring after both nations became declared nuclear powers in 1998. This shifted the stakes to a potential climb toward the nuclear threshold.

  • 2001-02 & 2008 Mumbai Attacks: Diplomatic ties hit rock bottom. The threat of escalation loomed, especially during Operation Parakram (2001-02), when nearly a million troops were mobilized.

  • 2016 Uri Attack & 2019 Pulwama-Balakot Episode: Marked India’s shift from a defensive posture to proactive retaliation through "surgical strikes" and aerial bombing — pushing into a new rung of controlled retaliation under nuclear deterrence.


Current Status: Balancing on a Razor’s Edge

In 2025, India and Pakistan maintain tense diplomatic relations, with periodic ceasefire violations and militant activity in Jammu & Kashmir. Several developments define their current rung on the escalation Ladder:

1. Controlled Conventional Engagement

The current status aligns with "Level 3 to 4" — involving occasional Border skirmishes and limited retaliatory actions, but short of full-blown war.

2. Diplomacy Intermittently Active

Backchannel talks continue intermittently, often brokered by the UAE or the US. However, the lack of sustained dialogue keeps tensions alive.

3. Cyber & Information Warfare

Both nations are increasingly engaging in cyber espionage, social media misinformation, and psychological operations — a modern addition to the traditional escalation Ladder.

4. Nuclear Posturing Remains a Deterrent

Pakistan continues to threaten the use of tactical nuclear weapons in case of Indian military incursions. India upholds its "No First Use" policy, but recent debates suggest a more flexible approach might be considered in the future.


Future Risks and Possibilities

  • Terrorism as a Trigger: Non-state actors remain the biggest wild card. Another major terror attack could provoke an Indian response and potential Pakistani counter-escalation.

  • Political Willpower: Both countries have strong nationalist governments. Domestic political pressure can influence military decisions, sometimes irrationally.

  • International Mediation: The global community continues to play a key role in de-escalation. Any major conflict threatens international security, especially with China involved in the region.


Holding the Line or Climbing Higher?

India and Pakistan are currently in a phase of managed hostility, teetering between peace and limited war. The diplomatic vacuum, coupled with nuclear capabilities, makes every rung above dangerously thin. De-escalation needs more than backchannel talks — it requires a sustained diplomatic process, confidence-building measures, and a mutual interest in economic and human development.

In the end, whether both nations descend toward peace or climb the Ladder further depends on leadership choices — and the will to break free from the shadows of history.

Shrishty Sharma

Manager HR/ Author

Asiatic International Corp

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