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Showing posts with label causes of recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label causes of recession. Show all posts

Saturday 23 November 2013

The Reason for the Great Global Recession





Global Recession Affected Industries

Airline Industry
Automobile Industry
Banking Industry
Education Industry
Hotel Industry
Real Estate Industry
Software Industry
Tourism Industry



Global Recession Affected Professions

Aviators
Bankers
Contractors
Engineers
IT Professionals
Managers [ MBAs ] 



What is Great Global Recession ? – Great Global Recession is defined as a significant Decline in Activity across the Economy, lasting longer than a few Months. It is mainly visible in Industrial Production, general Employment, Per-capita Income and Wholesale & Retail Trade. 

A normal Indicator of Great Global Recession is Two consecutive Quarters of negative Economic Growth which is measured by a Country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 



Recession is a Global phenomena. About 90% of the working Population has been directly affected by it worldwide. The People indirectly affected by Recession are the Families of Workers. We will go into more depth of this Global crisis in detail in this as-well-as following Chapters.

1981 – 1990: It all started way back in 1980s when the transition from Papers to Digital form was just beginning and the Boom which we witnessed 20 years back, was in its initial phase. This was a Time when even Television was seen as a Luxury. Lifestyle and Infrastructure was very basic and Education till Graduation was appreciated a lot. Letters which were typed using Typewriters instead of hand-written ones, were considered more important. People were aware about the presence of Computers somewhere on Earth but seeing one and working on it was still a far-fetched Dream. Even imagining one was impossible for many upper-Middle class individuals. The Terms ‘Information Technology (IT)’ and ‘Information Technology Enabled Services (ITES)’, which are commonly used now, were not even coined.

By the end of 80s, various Typewriting Courses were on its peak and Typewriting Speed was a main criteria of Selection for various positions in Offices. It opened a lot of Job opportunities for People especially Middle-class Girls, who became employable after basic Education and doing a course in Typewriting which was also out-of-reach for many Households. 



1991 – 2000: End of 1980s and beginning of 1990s saw the introduction of Computers in India by our former Prime Minister, Late Captain Rajiv Gandhi. It was a Revolution in Indian Industry and we are still grateful to Capt Gandhi for the same. By the middle of the Decade, the basic Infrastructure was completed.

Computerisation of various Government Offices was rampant as a much-required drive. Demand for Typewriting Courses started slowing down and its place was taken up by Computer Courses. Various big and small Computer Training Institutes mushroomed like NIIT, APTECH, UPTECH etc, besides several others throughout the Country. Demand by Students to learn operating a Computer was extreme and supply was low. 

Demand for Computer-literate Professionals for various Government and Private Jobs also flourished and a better Future was welcoming everybody. Even little Knowledge of Computers was enough. The Per-capita Income increased with the opening up of various Entrepreneurial Ventures wholly based on Computers. Many new Courses on Software and Hardware Engineering in Colleges came up which witnessed a heavy interest by Students. Also, the Fees for such Courses was sky-high but yet the Demand was at its peak too. Thus, by the end of this Decade, we saw the dawn of Information Technology in India which was set to position India firmly on the Global Map of Technical expertise.

2001 – 2010: The advent of 21st Century was special. Computers had established themselves in India and Supply of IT Education was equal to the Demand. Lots of Management Colleges also mushroomed and were in high Demand. MBA, MCA and related Courses were given umpteen Value and MBAs of 25-26 years of Age, were recruited with high starting Pay-packages. There was a sea-gap between the Youths of the same Age who used to get Rs 10,000 – 15,000/- with the same Years of quality Education and the Youths of 21st Century who started getting Rs 40,000 – Rs 50,000/- after doing MBAs or MCAs. Per-Capita Incomes boomed further with many Students getting recruited to IT Companies and other flourishing Industries at various levels with ever increasing Salaries.


The main Industries which were directly affected by this Boom were Aviation, Hospitality, Real Estate and Banking.

More-and-more people, at this time, started travelling by Flights instead of Trains, even for short Distances. They started opting to stay at a 5-Star Hotel on Vacations in place of 2 or 3-Star, which their Parents preferred. This happened due to the extra Disposable Incomes within Families. So, in short, the Graph was going higher-and-higher in consonance with the Stock Exchange and India’s GDP, which was nearing 9% by the end of the last Decade.

2011 – Present: Whatever goes up has to come down. Everything in the World is Cyclical in Nature and situations repeat themselves. Similarly, with every Boom comes a blast too. Too much of anything is dangerous and this is what is happening since the end of the last Decade. Because of so much Demand, lots of IT and Management Institutes came up in every nook-and-corner and were charging heavy Fees. But, Jobs were limited and Supply of Job-seekers was high. The result was that even highly-qualified MBAs, MCAs and Engineers were not getting the Jobs they deserved and they started opting for low-paying Jobs which were nowhere related to their Qualifications. 

As in the time of Boom, the Industries worst affected during this low-Phase were Aviation, Hospitality, Real Estate and Banking along with IT. The GDP currently is trailing at the levels of around 5% which is very very low when compared to that of last decade. 

The Professionals directly affected were Software Engineers and Management people. Those who were indirectly affected were Bankers and Aviation Professionals. There was a lot of Competition within the Industries as many big and small Businesses came up and it affected the Financial Health of these Corporations. The Times were very different than those from 1995 – 2000 when only a few Companies enjoyed Monopolies. Many Corporations started filing for Bankruptcies now and were Firing their Staffs. Highly Qualified people were now becoming Jobless and were settling for low-paying Jobs. 

As a result, people have started downgrading their Lifestyle now. They are again opting for Trains than Flights. This has been proved by the dismal Performances of all the Airlines in India since last few Years. They are again settling for 2-3 Star Hotels. So, overall they are again downgrading their Life which is very very difficult as they are used to a flamboyant Lifestyle. 

This is what has been termed as Recession which was witnessed in 2008 and is again raising its Hood. There are a lot of Lessons to be learnt both by our Governments and Industry Intelligentsia otherwise situation can go out of control.

The above was a Synopsis of the Reason for the Crisis which has affected all of us in some way or the other. In the following Chapters, we will discuss the Subject in more detail. 

1) Economic boompreceding the crash.

2) A Recession going on for a while. Mostly top gurus and players in business and government were aware of it. General public did not realize it for a while and remained in the mood of boom. By the time the Recession and economic slow down becomes known in general public it is too late. Large proportion of small investors and general public looses every thing they had and owned.

3) During the boom, before crash, under the influence of corporations and their lobbies, government ventures out in the world, mostly in the form of war or wars, to claim more influence and control in international affairs and in the national affairs of other countries, resulting into huge debts and deficits.

4) Bad business practices getting more and more common in corporations and banks, right before crash. 

5) Growing unemployment, under-employment, and seriously compromised buying power of average consumer.


Objectives

We will be reviewing two major causes of Recession of 2008, the preexisting low interest rate and high risk investments made due to low government regulations especially in the housing market. It was observed that around 2001, the government to boost the economic growth lowered the interest rate and for the most of the boom period of 2001-2007 it remained under 1%. It gave business and people access to abundance in easy credit which resulted in economic growth. As we will review, it is usually a short term measure and the adverse effects of such growth rise up sooner or later. The second area of focus will be high risk investment. The low interest rate persuaded investors to seek an alternative of secure government investments with low returns to more profitable avenues with high risk. One of the chief areas was the sub-prime markets as the investors had already utilized the credit-worthy borrowers and now they moved to riskier investments with high returns. The subprime mortgage became the favorite for investment as the regulations were relaxed to allow disadvantage people to obtain homes.

Literature Review

We will be reviewing the literature on the two causes of the Recession. First we will be reviewing the interest rate will be going through the studies which recommends that its effects on economic growth. We will be also looking at the effect of interest rate other decisions which caused the investors to opt for high risk investments and sub-prime investments...

4 years The bursting of the speculative bubble in shares led to further selling as people who had borrowed money to buy shares had to cash them in, when their loans were called in. Also called the Great Crash or the Wall Street Crash, leading to the Great Depression. Recession of 1937–1938 (U.S.) mid-1937 to mid-1938 1 year This share price fall was triggered by an economic Recession within the Great Depression and doubts about the effectiveness of Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal policy.

In our Next Blogs will Cover Following Topics 

Great Global Recession
Global Recession Causes 
Global Recession in Asia
Global Recession in USA
Recession in UK
What Is Recession
Economic Recession 
UK Recession Timeline
UK Recession Recovery
UK Recession Causes
UK Recession Facts
Double-Dip Recession UK
Recent Recession in the UK
Global Recession Causes and Consequences
Top 10 Us Industries
Top 10 Largest Industries
Top United States Industries
U.S. Growth Industries
Top  Recession Hit Industries in America

Blog By  

Pragya Banerjee MBA (Finance); 7+ years of work experience
email: pragyablogger@gmail.com
pragyasonal@gmail.com
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https://twitter.com/pragyasonal
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See Recession NEWS here

France May Be Returning to Recession, New Data Shows

FRANKFURT — Hopes that the euro zone could be emerging from years of torpor suffered another setback on Thursday when an indicator of economic activity ...


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Greece will not avoid a seventh year of recession in 2014, according to a report issued this week by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and ...

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... gross receipts tax revenues in the city have topped pre-recession levels for the first time. While it might be tempting, don't shout out, “The recession is over!

UM study: Michigan will regain recession's lost jobs by 2015

The Michigan economy will continue to add enough jobs that it should be back to pre-recession levels by the end of 2015, according to a new University of ...



US To Send Economic Advisory Team To Puerto Rico To Help With ...

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) – The U.S. government is sending a team of federal officials to help Puerto Rico manage an economic crisis that has spooked ...

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How Target aims to combat consumer anxiety this holiday season
 
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Rural areas of the United States aren't recovering from the Great Recession as quickly as their urban counterparts, according to new information released by ...













Monday 1 October 2012

Are We Already in A Recession?

Greece recession to enter 6th year, budget shows
San Jose Mercury News
ATHENS, Greece—Greece's draft budget submitted to Parliament on Monday shows the country is set for a sixth year of recession, with its economy predicted to contract by 3.8 percent in 2013. This year's recession is expected to see the economy shrink ...
See all stories on this topic »
Eurozone Manufacturing Data Indicates Region Has 'Fallen Back Into A New ...
Huffington Post
LONDON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Euro zone manufacturing put in its worst performance in the three months to September since the depths of the Great Recession, with factories hit by falling demand despite cutting prices, a business survey showed on Monday ...
See all stories on this topic »
JOHN HUSSMAN: We Are Already In Recession, And The Economists Just Don't ...
Business Insider
In his latest weekly letter, investor John Hussman reiterates his belief that we are already inrecession. In regard to a U.S. recession, keep in mind that the consensus of economic forecasters – not to mention central bankers - has never recognized ...
See all stories on this topic »
Wall Street Traders To Clients: It's Time To Start Preparing For An Obama Victory
Huffington Post
1 and start pulling the country into another recession. The higher taxes and lower spending would total $600 billion. They take effect automatically unless Congress and the White House reach a deal before then. If he's re-elected, Obama will still face ...
See all stories on this topic »
Open a business in a recession? Work is hard; rewards are earned
Philadelphia Inquirer
"We knew consciously that coming out of a recession we'd be much stronger, we'd have a good base of clients," he said. When Jeanine Hamilton started Hire Partnership, a staffing company, in Boston in mid-2008, it looked like the worst possible timing.
See all stories on this topic »

Philadelphia Inquirer
Euro-Region Unemployment Rate Rises to Record 11.4% on Crisis
San Francisco Chronicle
Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The unemployment rate in the euro area reached the highest on record as the festering debt crisis pushed the economy toward a recession, prompting companies to cut jobs. Unemployment in the economy of the 17 nations using the ...
See all stories on this topic »
Euro Outlook Weighed By Deepening Recession- Fitch Strikes Down Pound
Business Insider
As the debt crisis continues to raise the threat for a prolonged recession, European Central Bank board member Joerg Asmussen warned 'there could be additional need for external financing' in Greece, while there's talk that the periphery country may ...
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Recession stirs Catalan separatist fervour and breakaway vote
BDlive
THREE weeks after a massive Catalan separatist march in Barcelona — the biggest since the 1970s — the independence flags still flutter from balconies across Spain's second-largest city. Spain's crushing recession has had this divisive result: soaring ...
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BDlive
Emerging Europe Growth Faces Euro-Zone Pressure
Wall Street Journal
Europe's emerging economies have stood up to the euro-zone financial crisis, but may face increasing pressure as the currency bloc appears to fall into recession. Purchasing managers' data for September published Monday showed manufacturing grew in ...
See all stories on this topic »
Are We Already in A Recession?
TIME
“The official definition of recession has become delinked from peoples' actual experience. Right now, we're in an economy with deteriorating employment and incomes, collapsing home prices, and business retrenchment. Is it also an economy inrecession?
See all stories on this topic »


 









 


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Tuesday 25 September 2012

S & P says new Global Recession hitting euro zone





NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's Rating Services on Tuesday pared down its economic forecast for the euro zone in 2012 and 2013 in response to indicators that "paint a bleak picture" for the region. "The data are confirming our view that the region is entering a new period of recession, after three quarters of negative or flat growth since the final quarter of 2010," according to Jean-Michel Six, the rating agency's chief economist for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. "But prospects continue to vary from country to country." S&P said it now expects a drop of 0.8% in euro-zone GDP in 2012 and flat growth in 2013, compared to its July projection of a 0.7% GDP dip in 2012 and 0.3% growth in 2013.


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      The Great Recession In Comparative Context
      Slate Magazine (blog)
      This is an important comparative perspective. Similarly, when you're assessing the performance of the Bush and Obama administrations and the Ben Bernanke Fed it's important to not just compare them to some theoretical ideal but to policymakers in the...
      See all stories on this topic »

      Slate Magazine (blog)
      S&P says new recession hitting euro zone
      MarketWatch
      NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's Rating Services on Tuesday pared down its economic forecast for the euro zone in 2012 and 2013 in response to indicators that "paint a bleak picture" for the region. "The data are confirming our view that the ...
      See all stories on this topic »
      Recession, drought help Interstate 69 project as highway makes its slow creep ...
      Greenfield Daily Reporter
      WASHINGTON, Ind. — Parallel concrete strips stretched to the horizon in front and behind, recently laid by a "paving train," the huge pieces of linked equipment that continuously pour, settle and smooth a two-lane strip of roadway at a time. Workers ...
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      Lafayette banks prosper despite recession
      The Daily Advertiser
      insured banks based in Lafayette -- IberiaBank, MidSouth Bank and Home Bank -- all more than doubled their assets from December 2007, the beginning of the recession, to June 2012, according to data from FDIC. "We're doing extremely well. We are big on ...
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      Study: Recession punishes West Virginia workers
      World Socialist Web Site
      The recession wiped out 21,300 jobs in West Virginia, of which 18,000 of which have been recouped during the so-called economic “recovery” since 2010. However, due to population growth over this period some 27,000 new jobs would still need to be ...
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      During recession, some Aspen-area nonprofit leaders saw pay cuts
      Aspen Times
      The following chart reflects both the pay increases and decreases CEOs and executive directors of Aspen-Snowmass nonprofits have received, based on the most recent tax returns available for the organizations. The seven nonprofit directors are included ...
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      Germany to Avoid Recession in 2nd Half, Grow in 2013, Industry Chief Says
      NASDAQ
      BERLIN--Germany's economy will skirt recession in the second half of 2012 and continue growing next year, amid higher exports to the U.S. and improvements in the euro zone, the head of German industry lobbying group BDI forecast Tuesday.
      See all stories on this topic »